Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 4.583552 5.436453 6.381813 7.504225 8.797196 10.236533 11.956577
2025-05-11 3.228228 4.349847 5.733340 7.550453 9.857489 12.670637 16.339984
2025-05-18 2.295101 3.462231 5.042447 7.303953 10.416355 14.502261 20.215162
2025-05-25 1.659924 2.774713 4.415445 6.947054 10.680903 15.896878 23.621544
2025-06-01 1.290336 2.364450 4.066241 6.868971 11.253489 17.705441 27.725068
2025-06-08 1.021787 2.040181 3.767257 6.784978 11.760783 19.425997 31.831735
2025-06-15 0.893053 1.920357 3.766713 7.157461 12.997721 22.338832 37.972230
2025-06-22 0.744485 1.725578 3.594408 7.199280 13.678292 24.423307 42.992032
2025-06-29 0.621355 1.549294 3.418639 7.196908 14.264482 26.387041 47.964644
2025-07-06 0.519722 1.391952 3.246998 7.167704 14.784331 28.267483 52.935436
2025-07-13 0.491638 1.393001 3.392811 7.767686 16.515639 32.376198 62.000069
2025-07-20 0.437885 1.319448 3.367014 8.015048 17.599050 35.419581 69.434642
2025-07-27 0.392594 1.259015 3.366006 8.327687 18.872192 38.967962 78.142854
2025-08-03 0.333717 1.147049 3.227633 8.327098 19.523927 41.434360 85.117018
2025-08-10 0.269911 1.001532 2.979377 8.040797 19.548272 42.706029 89.980311
2025-08-17 0.213389 0.858376 2.705298 7.646315 19.286031 43.381903 93.752649
2025-08-24 0.179135 0.774628 2.568911 7.559266 19.682369 45.396556 100.251372
2025-08-31 0.150431 0.699474 2.439525 7.467144 20.051658 47.378755 106.820903
2025-09-07 0.140512 0.690018 2.498290 7.872080 21.620901 51.990803 118.990276
2025-09-14 0.122140 0.640962 2.427368 7.917463 22.333217 54.824183 127.699804
2025-09-21 0.105289 0.591440 2.344007 7.914850 22.925984 57.440760 136.130396
2025-09-28 0.090311 0.543704 2.255535 7.883080 23.440385 59.920434 144.432274
2025-10-05 0.089512 0.561613 2.393417 8.535292 25.769692 66.645212 162.219576